US and Canada Travel Uncertainty Creates Challenges for New Hampshire North Country Tourism, Threatened by Victoria Day Weekend This Summer

The significant decline in travel between the US and Canada is raising serious concerns for New Hampshire’s North Country region as the Victoria Day weekend approaches, traditionally one of the earliest and busiest holiday travel periods of the summer. This downturn stems largely from escalating political tensions, including recent trade disputes and rhetoric that have strained cross-border relations, discouraging Canadians from visiting the US. As a result, local businesses that rely heavily on Canadian visitors for tourism revenue are facing uncertainty, with fears that the reduced influx could dampen economic activity and jeopardize the region’s crucial summer season. This Victoria Day weekend will serve as an important early indicator of whether the longstanding flow of Canadian travelers to New Hampshire will resume or continue to decline amid the ongoing political climate.

North Country Businesses Brace for Impact as Canadian Travel to US Declines Amid Political Tensions

The long-standing flow of Canadian tourists into New England’s North Country is facing uncertainty as travel from Canada to the United States drops sharply. Local businesses that depend heavily on Canadian visitors are watching closely this upcoming Victoria Day weekend on May nineteenth — traditionally one of the first major holiday weekends of the summer — to gauge whether political tensions between the two nations will translate into fewer tourists and diminished economic activity for the season ahead.

Victoria Day Weekend a Crucial Early Indicator

For the North Country Chamber of Commerce, which serves Coös County in New Hampshire and stretches into northeastern Vermont, the Victoria Day weekend has always been a key marker. It signals the start of the summer tourism rush, often bringing a noticeable surge of Canadian travelers taking advantage of the long weekend. Butch Ladd, the chamber’s executive director, is particularly attentive to the presence of Canadian license plates on the roads this year, as they may reveal shifting attitudes among Canada’s southern neighbors toward crossing the border.

A Sharp Decline in Canadian Travel

The concern is well-founded. Recent statistics show a significant downturn in Canadian visits to the U.S., with almost nine hundred thousand fewer Canadian travelers crossing the border in March 2025 compared to the same period the previous year. This decline is part of a broader trend that has been unfolding over several months, raising alarm among tourism operators who fear the effects could ripple throughout the summer and fall seasons.

Several factors contribute to this decline, chief among them political and economic disputes between the two countries. Former US President Donald Trump’s administration introduced tariffs on key Canadian exports, fueling trade tensions and generating resentment in Canada. Adding to this strain were Trump’s controversial comments suggesting that Canada might be better off as the United States’ fifty-first state — remarks that many Canadians found provocative and dismissive of their sovereignty.

Political Climate Shapes Cross-Border Travel

These developments have contributed to growing anti-American sentiment north of the border, a sentiment that has influenced Canadian political dynamics. The recent election of Prime Minister Mark Carney, who campaigned on standing firm against perceived U.S. hostility, reflects a shift in public mood. Carney’s election sent a strong message that Canadians seek to defend their nation’s interests amid the ongoing trade and political disputes.

Whether this political climate will lead to a long-term decline in cross-border travel remains to be seen. Some experts argue that Canadian tourists might reduce discretionary travel to the U.S. as a form of economic and political expression, while others believe that the historic ties and geographic proximity will continue to encourage travel despite political rhetoric.

Economic Stakes for the North Country

For communities in the North Country, the stakes are high. Tourism is a vital economic engine, supporting a wide range of businesses including lodging providers, restaurants, retail shops, and recreational attractions. Canadian visitors typically spend heavily in these sectors, boosting local employment and tax revenues.

Ladd explained that the North Country has traditionally benefited from Canadians seeking outdoor recreation, scenic escapes, and cultural experiences just across the border. Many Canadians own second homes or vacation properties in the region, further cementing cross-border ties. A significant decline in visitor numbers would not only reduce immediate spending but could also affect future investments and the long-term vitality of local businesses.

Looking Ahead: Adaptation and Resilience

Local leaders and business owners are preparing for different scenarios. Some are stepping up marketing efforts to attract domestic tourists or travelers from other US regions to offset potential losses. Others hope that any current travel slowdown is temporary and that improving diplomatic relations will restore the flow of Canadian visitors.

The Broader Context of U.S.-Canada Relations

The North Country’s experience is a microcosm of wider economic and cultural ties between Canada and the United States, which remain deeply interconnected despite recent frictions. Cross-border travel has long been a symbol of the close relationship, with millions of Canadians and Americans regularly crossing for work, family visits, shopping, and leisure.

While political disputes and tariff conflicts have challenged this dynamic, experts caution against drawing hasty conclusions about the future. Historical precedents suggest that travel and trade often rebound once tensions ease and new agreements are reached.

The drop in US and Canada travel ahead of Victoria Day reflects rising political tensions and trade disputes, causing uncertainty for New Hampshire’s North Country businesses that depend on Canadian visitors. This holiday weekend will reveal if tourism will rebound or continue to decline amid these strained relations.

For now, however, the Victoria Day weekend will serve as an important early barometer of how Canadians feel about traveling to the US in 2025 — and the impact those feelings will have on North Country communities that rely on their visits.